South Korean people watch breaking news of a North Korean ship invading the Northern Limit Line at Seoul Station, Monday. Newsis

North Korean merchant ship violates maritime border

By Kang Seung-woo

South and North Korea exchanged warning shots, Monday, accusing each other of border violations in the West Sea, in what is already a period of heightened tension.

According to the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), a North Korean merchant ship invaded the Northern Limit Line (NLL) at 3:42 a.m. and the South Korean Navy responded with 20 warning messages and as many warning shots to repel the vessel.

However, nearly one hour after the North Korean ship retreated, the North's military fired 10 artillery shells into the West Sea, claiming that a South Korean naval ship intruded into North Korean waters ― 2.5 kilometers to five kilometers ― with the excuse that South Korean authorities were cracking down on an unidentified ship when they made the alleged intrusion.

The NLL is the de facto maritime border in the West Sea between the two Koreas, drawn up by the United Nations Command after the 1950-53 Korean War. However, Pyongyang has persistently attempted to invalidate the NLL, claiming that it should be drawn south of the current line.

In that respect, bloody battles occurred there in 1999, 2002 and 2009 and thus in order to prevent such unintended incidents, the two Koreas reached an agreement to establish a maritime buffer zone spanning ― around 80 kilometers in the East Sea and 135 kilometers in the West Sea ― under which artillery firing and naval drills are suspended, while routine patrol operations near the NLL and efforts to protect fishing activities continue.

According to the South Korean JCS, it detected the North's launch of 10 artillery shells, which started at around 5:14 a.m., in violation of the inter-Korean military agreement, signed in September 2018 to reduce border tensions. The JCS called it a provocation harming peace and stability not only on the peninsula but also in the international community.

However, the General Staff of the North's Korean People's Army (KPA) said its coastal defense units on the western front took initial countermeasure to "powerfully expel the enemy warship by firing 10 shells, from multiple rocket launchers, toward the territorial waters, where the enemy's naval movements were detected, at 5:15."

It added, "The KPA General Staff once again sends a grave warning to the enemies who made the naval intrusion in the wake of such provocations as the recent artillery firing and loudspeaker broadcasting on the ground front."

In response, the JCS said it was no longer operating loudspeakers along the border.

The exchange of fire came as tensions on the Korean Peninsula have been sharply escalating due to the North's recent belligerent activities.

Between Oct. 14 and 19, North Korea fired some 1,000 artillery shells off of the east and west coasts of the Korean peninsula, while a total of 44 ballistic missiles have been launched this year, a violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions, which currently ban the North from testing ballistic missile technology.

Alongside the recent provocations, North Korea has fully prepared for a nuclear test, according to South Korean and U.S. intelligence authorities, ratcheting up tensions further on the peninsula.

Diplomatic observers believe North Korea's next nuclear test is a matter of when and not if.

"North Korea could conduct a nuclear test any day now ― especially now that the Chinese party congress is over," said Harry Kazianis, the president of the Rogue States Project, a U.S.-based think tank. "We should stop asking if it will happen ― the only question now is when."

China, North Korea's lone ally, ended its National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, Saturday, which saw President Xi Jinping re-elected for an unprecedented third five-year term, with many believing that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un would detonate another nuclear device after Beijing's major political event.

"My guess would be that Kim would want to put a little distance between China's big political events and the nuclear test, so it would make sense to pull the trigger sometime near the U.S. midterms for maximum impact ― maybe around the week of Oct. 31," Kazianis said.

Traditionally, the North Korean regime has shown a proclivity to cause trouble around U.S. election time.

"Kim would get maximum media impact if he did it a few days before the midterms," he added.