Japan wants to engage N. Korea's denuclearization process

By Kim Yoo-chul

A key question on the minds of political analysts following Russia's invasion of Ukraine is how North Korea views the incursion.

Russian President Vladimir Putin's war raised a lot of concerns and debates from a security standpoint not only for Europe but also in Asia. The Biden administration is further strengthening its commitment to the Indo-Pacific region, and China's dissatisfaction over NATO's recent description of Beijing as a "challenge" to its security and values is also raising the probability of conflict escalation in Northeast Asia.

Under this kind of new geopolitical situation, North Korea is in the process of recalibrating its core foreign policy priorities in a way to position itself mostly between Washington, Beijing, Seoul and Tokyo, according to political analysts.

According to them, the ongoing Ukraine crisis is being emphasized by the North Korean regime to reawaken the necessity of having more nuclear weapons to possibly break U.S. military actions, providing justification for Pyongyang to hold on to its nuclear capabilities at any cost.

South Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin believes North Korea has "completed its preparations to conduct a nuclear test," a view that is also shared by the United States. "North Korea has yet to make any political decisions," the minister said during a recent regular briefing with reporters.

North Korea hasn't carried out a nuclear test in five years during the former Moon Jae-in administration, although Pyongyang has launched 18 missiles this year alone. The latest updates by 38 North, a North Korea information provider, show that a reactor inside North Korea's nuclear research center in Yongbyon was continuing to produce plutonium for the country's nuclear weapons program despite heavy rain over the past several weeks.

Korea Society, a leading New York-based think tank, claimed it is unjustifiable for the North to develop nuclear weapons to defend against military attacks by the United States.

"Because the U.S.-ROK alliance since 1953 has been defensive, to deter another invasion by North Korea, the North's justification for developing nuclear weapons to 'possibly break U.S. military attacks' is not justified," Thomas J. Byrne, CEO and president of Korea Society, said in a recent written interview with The Korea Times.

As seen in NATO's response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and by previously neutral Finland and Sweden seeking NATO membership, Byrne said any "grave actions" that could threaten the global order "will meet great military unity among Western countries and democracies." Byrne didn't elaborate, but stressed that North Korea may take a lesson from the 1954 Budapest Memorandum that it is better to have one's own nuclear weapons than security assurances from world powers.

Korea Society CEO and President Thomas J. Byrne smiles at the start of a recent forum held at its New York headquarters. Courtesy of Korea Society

Jonathan Corrado, policy director at the Society, added, "Pyongyang often complains about America's attempts to build an 'Asian NATO,' a reference to security cooperation among the United States, South Korea, Japan and other allies such as Quad members. From this episode, however, North Korea should also learn the lesson that provocations, nuclear tests and invasions will only inspire further integration and unity among this group of partners."

Russia reacted very angrily to NATO's offer of membership to Finland and Sweden, calling it as a "destabilizing" effort that will increase the level of tensions in the Baltic region.

However, the offer followed after Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, which immediately prompted countries neighboring Russia to appeal to NATO for extra security guarantees. The accession of the two Scandinavian countries into NATO means the closure of a decades-long status quo that had put Finland into a neutral position during the Cold War to avoid any direct threats with the Soviet Union.

Corrado put some emphasis on this development. "Just as Russia's invasion inspired Finland and Sweden to join NATO, so too would further North Korean destabilizing actions lead to enhanced cooperation between the United States, South Korea and their regional allies and partners," he said.

He claimed North Korea's decision to develop nuclear weapons stretches back to the 1950s, while the program started to make real strides in the 1970s. "It is also true that Russia's invasion of Ukraine, a country which briefly possessed and then surrendered nuclear weapons, is further vindication of the logic that first convinced and now sustains North Korea's commitment to maintaining and developing nuclear weapons," Corrado said.

Maintaining deterrence until NK engages in diplomacy

Former President Moon Jae-in, who described himself as a mediator, tried harder to keep up the communications between the United States and North Korea. The core reason behind Moon's "mediating role" is the basis of his firm belief that the leaders of Washington and Pyongyang hold the keys in actually advancing the inter-Korean peace process.

People watch a TV screen showing a file image of North Korea's firing of projectiles, at Seoul Station, March 2, 2020. AP-Yonhap

Earlier summits between Moon and his North Korean counterpart Kim Jong-un and between then U.S. President Donald Trump and Kim produced several declarations to lower inter-Korean tensions. But the limits of his mediating role and shuttle diplomacy regarding North Korea's denuclearization became clear after the collapse of the summit in Hanoi, Vietnam, in February 2019, when Trump refused to accept the North's Kim's requests for partial sanctions relief as a precondition to the start of its denuclearization steps.

Regarding questions over the key lessons from the "limits of former President Moon's shuttle diplomacy" as Moon had no say in terms of the direction for the peace process, Byrne said, "Unfortunately, what is most limited is North Korea's interest in opening up and engaging constructively the international community. (Former) President Moon Jae-in ran into the same obstinacy as did all other administrations, ultimately."

The Korea Society chief advised President Yoon Suk-yeol and his team handling inter-Korean affairs to seek ways to further strengthen the Washington-Seoul alliance and focus on deterrence until North Korea is ready to engage in diplomacy.

US President Donald Trump, center, meets South Korea's President Moon Jae-in and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe ahead of the G20 summit in Hamburg, Germany, July 6, 2017. Reuters-Yonhap

"I think North Korea will need to open up and engage the international community if it is serious in achieving sustainable economic development, as has been the case with every other country in the post-World War II era ― including China, the former Soviet states and even Russia until its invasion of Ukraine," Byrne said.

"North Korea's possession of any number of nuclear weapons will block its access to economic aid and finance from the West, and its historical suspicion of China will limit its dependence on its economically powerful neighbor. To the contrary, North Korea has so far been willing to subject its citizens to great economic deprivation rather than to forego its military objectives," according to the CEO.

Corrado responded, "The international community should nonetheless consistently, persistently and insistently strive to persuade North Korea's leadership that these weapons are more of a liability than an asset, and that entering into negotiations leading to denuclearization could significantly improve not only North Korea's economic prospects, but also its security position as well."

Because North Korea's denuclearization process is primarily being negotiated between Washington, Beijing and Pyongyang and Seoul, Tokyo's position is quite vague and its role in this process is limited, although Japan could be the most affected by the results of the denuclearization process, which has been stalled since the fallout in Hanoi, because Japan would possibly be the target of North Korea's nuclear and even conventional short- to medium-range missiles.

Byrne said Japan is part of an axis in the denuclearization process.

"I believe Japan feels threatened by North Korea's missile and nuclear weapons program, and would like to see denuclearization. An optimal response by the U.S.' two great allies in East Asia would be for close coordination between Japan, South Korea and the United States."