This photo released Thursday by the North's official Korean Central News Agency shows the test-launch of long-range strategic cruise missiles at an undisclosed location in North Korea, Wednesday. Yonhap

ICBM and nuclear weapons tests expected in coming months: analysts

By Jung Min-ho

North Korea test-launched two long-range cruise missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads on Wednesday, Pyongyang's state news agency reported the next day. Leader Kim Jong-un, who supervised the test, praised it as a successful display of the military's expanding nuclear strike capabilities and a stark warning to its "enemies."

According to the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), the missiles struck their targets as planned after traveling 2,000 kilometers in figure-eight trajectories. The cruise missile type, which is more difficult to detect by radar and has greater accuracy than a ballistic one, is a significant threat to South Korea and its allies, especially if it carries nuclear weapons in the tip.

Kim said the cruise missile test proved its combat readiness again and vowed to continue expanding its nuclear weapons capabilities, the KCNA reported.

"Strengthening national defense for our dignity, sovereignty and right to life has been a consistent, unchanging principle," he was quoted as saying. "We should focus on developing our nuclear weapons capabilities endlessly at an accelerated pace."

A TV screen shows file images of North Korea's missile launch during a news program at Seoul Station in Seoul, Thursday. AP-Yonhap

South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said the cruise missile test had been detected immediately, and is still under analysis. The JCS also said JCS Chairman Kim Seung-kyum will hold trilateral talks with his U.S. and Japanese counterparts ― Mark Milley and Koji Yamazaki, respectively ― in the U.S. on Oct. 20. to discuss cooperation against North Korea's increasing threats.

While North Korea's nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) targeting the U.S. mainland have been the focus of international attention, it has been demonstrating other types of weapons recently, including a submarine-launched ballistic missile, in an apparent bid to expand its arsenal and ratchet up the threat level.

Analysts warn that the war in Ukraine and the intensifying rivalry between Washington and Beijing have created a favorable environment for Pyongyang to develop its latest weapons with little or no concern about the consequences. They also say the North will likely conduct ICBM and nuclear weapons tests in the coming months.

Some experts believe North Korea has refrained from conducting tests on nuclear weapons and ICBMs because of the National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, scheduled to open on Oct. 16. It is an important event for President Xi Jinping, who is seeking to secure a precedent-breaking third term there. Once it is over sometime next week, North Korea is expected to demonstrate more serious threats, including possibly its first nuclear weapons test since 2017, according to the experts.

"I think it is all but certain that North Korea will not only test a nuclear weapon after China's National Congress but will also test an ICBM and more missiles in the weeks ahead," Harry Kazianis, president of the think tank, Rogue States Project, told The Korea Times.

"The reasons for North Korea's boldness is simple: It has no reason to hold back anymore. It knows the Biden administration had no way to punish North Korea without some form of Chinese or Russian help … And they have no incentive to help ― that means they likely won't even help enforce existing sanctions," he said.

Kazianis added the war in Ukraine and rising tensions surrounding Taiwan have soured any chances of help from the two most important allies of North Korea.

"Both nations have large problems with Washington and see no reason to be willing to do anything about North Korea. In fact, both nations love the fact that Washington will have to divert attention and resources away from them. So for Russia and China, the more tests that the Kim family does they see as a positive," he said.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un smiles during his visit to Mangyongdae Revolutionary School in Pyongyang, Wednesday, in this file photo released Thursday by the North's official Korean Central News Agency. Yonhap

Cheong Seong-chang, director of the Center for North Korean Studies at the Sejong Institute, agrees. But considering the dates on which the North conducted nuclear weapons tests in the past, he believes its next test won't take place until early next year.

"Given that there are no major political events planned for November or December, my best guess is that it will conduct its nuclear weapons test around the birthday of Kim (believed to be Jan. 8) or his father Kim Jong-il (Feb. 16)," he said.

This year, North Korea has fired more than 40 ballistic and cruise missiles in more than 20 launch events at an unprecedented pace. China and Russia, permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, have rejected U.S.-led proposals to impose additional sanctions on the North.