U.S. military helicopters are parked at U.S. Army Garrison Humphreys in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi Province during joint exercises with South Korea in this April 18 photo. Newsis

Combined drills to take place in late August

By Kang Seung-woo

As South Korea and the United States are poised to test Seoul's military readiness to regain wartime operational control (OPCON) of its forces from Washington during their envisaged combined field drills next month, questions are growing over whether South Korea's delayed plan will pick up speed.

However, military experts say that the one-time exercise will not be enough to determine if South Korea ― which has the world's sixth-most-powerful military ― is fully prepared for the transfer of OPCON.

The OPCON transfer has already been pushed back twice in the past and the two allies agreed upon a condition-based OPCON transition plan in 2014. Under the Moon Jae-in administration, South Korea sought to take back the authority by the end of his term in May of this year, but the postponing of field exercises various times dashed such hopes. Seoul regained peacetime OPCON in 1994.

According to military sources, the two countries have been weighing the idea of conducting field maneuvers during their combined command post training (CCPT) from Aug. 22 to Sept. 1. During the period, they are also seeking to hold the full operational capability (FOC) assessment of the future Combined Forces Command, the second of the three-phase verification process to check the South Korean military's readiness for OPCON, which did not happen last year in part due to COVID-19.

If it gets approved by the defense ministers of both sides, a Full Mission Capability (FMC) test will be subsequently carried out. The two sides carried out an initial operational capability (IOC) test in 2019.

"The South Korean military must show that it can lead a combined command architecture through the envisaged field drills, but the exercise has not been conducted for the past four years. In addition, we are pressed for time, preventing the allies from holding a full-scale training like before," said Shin Jong-woo, a senior researcher at the Korea Defense and Security Forum.

"I think next year or the year after next, the allies might be able to fully assess the South Korean military's readiness for the OPCON transfer," he continued.

Former Defense Minister Suh Wook and U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin agreed during last year's Security Consultative Meeting in Seoul to conduct the FOC assessment this fall. The field training has begun to take shape following the summit between President Yoon Suk-yeol and U.S. President Joe Biden in May. At the summit, they agreed to begin talks on expanding the "scope and scale" of combined drills on and around the Korean Peninsula.

Along with the pundits' negative views, Yoon himself is also skeptical about a speedy OPCON transition.

In an interview with Voice of America in May, Yoon said South Korea lacks sufficient readiness to operate intelligence assets, which are essential in commanding a wartime operation.

"The issue of returning wartime operational control to South Korea should depend on factors that are the most effective in winning a war," he added.

The OPCON transfer is often seen as signifying the restoration of South Korea's military sovereignty, but Shin said that its actual meaning has been misunderstood.

"The goal of the OPCON transition is to build a unified strategy between South Korea and the U.S. in order to effectively respond to North Korea's threats," he said, questioning if South Korea would be able to lead the U.S. Navy or Air Force, which have military capabilities superior to those of its South Korean counterparts.