This photo, released Sunday, by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency, shows the test-firing of what it claims to have been a new tactical guided weapon. EPA-Yonhap

By Kang Seung-woo

There was no massive military parade nor a nuclear test when North Korea celebrated its late founder's birth anniversary, Saturday.

However, Pyongyang's military show of force remains a possibility as the country is set to mark 2022 as a "revolutionary year of celebrations," with its first step likely to be a demonstration of its military hardware later this month, according to diplomatic observers, Tuesday.

North Korea is set to celebrate multiple anniversaries this year. This year is the 10th anniversary of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's reign in power, while the reclusive nation will also be commemorating the 110th and 80th birthday anniversaries of Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il, the current dictator's grandfather and father, respectively. In addition, the country is scheduled to mark the 90th anniversary of the founding of the Korean People's Revolutionary Army, the predecessor of the present Korean People's Army, on April 25.

Traditionally, North Korea has celebrated the anniversary with a large-scale military show of force in years ending with a five or zero.

Despite predictions that the Kim regime could have shown off its newly developed weapons and even conducted a seventh nuclear test on the occasion of Kim Il-sung's birthday, it instead marked the anniversary in a festive mood, featuring fireworks and a dance performance.

North Korea test-fired a new type of tactical guided weapon on the day, but it was regarded, by experts, as staging a relatively low-intensity provocation.

"On April 25, North Korea is highly expected to hold a large-scale military parade showing off its state-of-art equipment," said Cho Han-beom, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification.

"However, the North may refrain from launching an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) anytime soon as its Tongchang-ri missile launch site does not seem fully prepared."

Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University, presented a similar view.

"The North Korean regime is likely to stage a military parade on a large scale, featuring a range of weapons that it has unveiled so far," he said.

"After that, it may rev up its provocations following the South Korea-U.S. combined military drill, scheduled to end on April 28. One of its options could be a submarine-launched ballistic missile."

On Monday, Seoul and Washington kicked off their annual military exercise, which North Korea has denounced as a rehearsal for invasion.

Park also said North Korea may be cautious about testing an ICBM, or its newest Hwasong-17.

"In March, North Korea claimed it had successfully tested the Hwasong-17, but a relaunch of the missile would be self-contradictory," he said, adding that it may disguise the launch as a military reconnaissance satellite.

On Monday, Sung Kim, the U.S. special representative for North Korea, arrived in Seoul and met with his South Korean counterpart Noh Kyu-duk. Following their meeting, the American envoy said they will strongly respond to North Korea's destabilizing behavior, including a possible nuclear test.

However, it remains to be seen if the North Korean leader pushes ahead with a seventh nuclear test.

"For North Korea, it is not urgent to carry out a nuclear test and the detonation of a nuclear bomb needs to remain a last resort," Cho said.

Park also said it could go either way as North Korea has self-proclaimed itself as a nuclear state.

"Experts are also mixed on whether North Korea needs another nuclear test. Its restoration work at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site means either it's a gesture to pressure South Korea and the U.S. for more concessions in nuclear talks or as part of efforts to miniaturize a nuclear warhead," he added.