President Moon Jae-in looks at a gift from Chinese President Xi Jinping during his visit to Beijing in December 2017. Courtesy of Cheong Wa Dae

Xi's visit to Korea unlikely during Moon's presidency

By Do Je-hae

President Moon Jae-in has paid a lot of attention to improving relations with China through an active summit diplomacy with Chinese President Xi Jinping, following the bilateral dispute over the deployment of a U.S. missile defense system ― the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system ― on Korean soil during his predecessor Park Geun-hye's term.

Moon held a summit with Xi in Beijing on Dec. 14, 2017. The Korean leader visited the Chinese capital again almost two years later on Dec. 23, 2019 for another summit with Xi en route to Chengdu for the Korea-China-Japan summit. In addition to these instances, Moon has met with Xi during multilateral diplomatic occasions throughout his presidency, most recently during a video conference of the leaders of ASEAN, Korea, China and Japan on Nov. 14, 2020.

There are two primary reasons for Seoul's urgent attempts to improve ties with Beijing and put the THAAD dispute behind them. First, Korea is looking for headway in economic issues, and secondly, there is the North Korea issue, for which Moon is expected to continue to seek cooperation from key players, including China. "Our government, along with the international community, including China, will not stop the efforts to end the war on the Korean Peninsula and push for complete denuclearization and permanent peace," Moon said during a meeting with Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi at Cheong Wa Dae on Nov. 26, 2020.

Ahead of the inauguration of the Joe Biden administration in the U.S., some experts are highlighting China's role on the Korean Peninsula in setting the right mood for resuming diplomacy with North Korea.

"China's role in preventing North Korean provocations is vital," Kim Dong-gil, professor of Department of History at Peking University, said in a recent interview with The Korea Times. "China needs to reassure North Korea and prevent provocations through continuous dialogue or partial economic aid within the scope of U.N. sanctions."

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, third from left, and Chinese President Xi Jinping, second from right, engage in a conversation ahead of a luncheon in Beijing on March 27, 2018. The first summit between South Korean President Moon and Kim took place a few weeks later on April 27 at the border village of Panmunjom. Korea Times file

Beijing's top diplomatic officials ― Yang Jiechi, a senior advisor to Xi, and Wang ― made successive visits to Korea in August and November 2020, respectively. But there has not been much progress with topics that are important to Korea, such as Xi's reciprocal visit to Korea.

Xi has not visited Korea since July 2014 and the Moon administration sought to realize Xi's visit to Korea last year, but it has been delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Professor Kim said that a reciprocal visit by Xi during Moon's presidency is unlikely to happen, given the political situation both in the U.S. and South Korea.

"Xi's visit will only be possible after the second half of this year when the security team and security policy of the Biden administration are established," Kim added. "But from the second half of the year, South Korea will quickly become engulfed in the presidential election (slated for March 2022)."

The scholar also underlined the need for Seoul's balanced response to the U.S.-China conflict, which has profound impact on South Korea's diplomacy and national security.

The following are edited answers from a written interview with the historian who also serves as the director of Center for Korean Peninsular Studies at China's top university.

Kim Dong-gil, professor of Department of History, Peking University / Courtesy of Kim Dong-gil

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