U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un shake hands at Panmunjeom in this June 2019 photo. They are not expected to meet each other ahead of the U.S. presidential election in November, according to diplomatic experts. / Korea Times file

By Kang Seung-woo

Despite President Moon Jae-in's publicized wishes and an envisaged visit by U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Biegun to Seoul, another summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and U.S. President Donald Trump is not on the cards, as there is little to motivate the North toward resuming their denuclearization talks, diplomatic experts said Thursday.

Trump and Kim have had three meetings ― in Singapore in June 2018, in Vietnam in February 2019 and at Panmunjeom in June 2019.

According to Cheong Wa Dae, Moon recently relayed his wishful message about a summit to the White House in a bid to reactivate his "Korea peace initiative" amid the stalled diplomacy between Pyongyang and Washington following the collapse of the Hanoi summit. An official added the U.S. side was "making efforts for that."

In addition, Biegun, who is in charge of the U.S. government's negotiations with the North, is expected to arrive here next week, sparking speculation that he may deliver a message to Kim from Trump, including possibly offering another meeting ahead of the Nov. 3 presidential election in the United States.

An Associated Press report also said the Trump administration was anticipating the possibility of an "October surprise" before the election.

"Though there is always a chance, I am highly doubtful that there will be another Kim-Trump summit before the election," U.S. Naval War College professor Terence Roehrig told The Korea Times.

"As the U.S. gets closer to November, the administration will become ever more focused on the campaign, particularly if President Trump's standing in the polls continues to slip. Leaders have often undertaken a foreign policy initiative to distract from trouble at home, but I doubt this would make much difference in the election and would carry tremendous risk."

Daniel Sneider, an expert on Korean and Japanese foreign policy at Stanford University, expressed a similar view.

"I have seen the various reports, including Biegun's remarks in Washington, which seemed to me to clearly rule out a summit ahead of the election. Given the pandemic situation in the U.S., which is increasingly severe, and Trump's declining political fortunes, it is difficult to see what benefit he could derive from another summit," Sneider told The Korea Times.

Moon hopes another Trump-Kim summit leader before November election: Cheong Wa Dae