Barricades set up in front of a bridge in the border town of Paju, Gyeonggi Province, which leads to the truce village of Panmunjeom inside the Demilitarized Zone separating the two Koreas, are seen in this photo taken Aug. 11 shows. Yonhap

Pyongyang may opt for military action without US concessions

By Kang Seung-woo

A series of threats by North Korea regarding combined military exercises run by South Korea and the United States could lead to Pyongyang scrapping an inter-Korean military pact and demolishing South Korean facilities at the Mount Geumgang tourist resort, as a means to extract more concessions from Washington, according to diplomatic observers here.

On Wednesday, Kim Yong-chol, head of the United Front Department handling inter-Korean affairs, issued a statement warning that the North will make the South and the U.S. regret their decision to hold the joint drills and they will face a "serious security crisis" due to the "wrong choice."

Kim Yong-chol, head of North Korea's United Front Department / Yonhap

South Korea and the U.S. began a four-day preliminary drill, Tuesday, in the run-up to the main combined exercise set to kick off next week.

"They must be made to clearly understand how dearly they have to pay for answering our good faith with hostile acts after letting go the opportunity for improved inter-Korean relations," Kim said in a statement carried by the Korean Central News Agency.

His statement came one day after Kim Yo-jong, sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, also denounced South Korea and the U.S., Tuesday, for pushing ahead with the exercises despite her earlier warning that they would "cloud inter-Korean relations." Following her announcement, the North stopped answering the South's telephone calls via liaison and military hotlines. The two Koreas had made calls twice a day since the lines were restored July 27.

"Given that the Wednesday statement came from the United Front Department, North Korea's initial response could be against South Korea. If it had planned to directly threaten the U.S., either the North Korean foreign ministry or the General Staff Department of the Korean People's Army would have issued the statement," said Hong Min, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification.

"As Kim Yo-jong clarified its plans in the denunciation of the combined exercises in a statement on March 15, the North Korean regime is highly anticipated to ditch the inter-Korean military agreement, while disbanding the Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Country and the Mount Geumgang International Tourism Bureau."

The Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Country is aimed at promoting North Korean style unification.

Kim Dong-yub, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies, echoed Hong's view.

"Rather than staging provocation, including testing newly developed weapons, North Korea will likely carry out the three actions Kim Yo-jong mentioned," he said.

Hong also said the Kim Yong-chol statement was mainly focused on blaming the exercises on South Korea, so as not to provoke the U.S., and keep potential dialogue momentum alive.

Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University, said North Korea was following its years-long routine regarding the combined exercises ― showing a conciliatory gesture to South Korea first, criticizing Seoul unless Pyongyang's "absurd" demands were accepted and then going its own way to modernize its nuclear weapons.

"As North Korea also wants to hold talks with the U.S., it is seeking to create advantageous conditions before sitting down with Washington," Park said.

He added that the North tends to escalate tensions before returning to negotiations.

"It means North Korea is struggling with domestic issues as Kim Jong-un has admitted the seriousness of its economic situation. As a last resort, the leader is trying to ratchet up tensions to strengthen his grip domestically," Park said.

Recently, North Korea has been plagued with floods in South Hamgyong Province, along with the triple whammy of last fall's typhoons, the COVID-19 outbreak and international sanctions.

North Korea raising tension as a way of getting the U.S. to yield more concessions in the lead-up to nuclear talks is an ongoing ploy, but despite the completion of its review of North Korea policy in April, the Joe Biden administration has made little moves to engage the Kim Jong-un regime. This could lead the North to opt for military provocations.

"Currently, the North Korea issue is invisible on the agenda of the Biden administration. As a result, the impatient Kim Jong-un said, in June, that he was ready for both dialogue and confrontation with the U.S.; however this was all to no avail. In that respect, the North is now pressuring the South to do something," Hong said.

"If the U.S. negligence of the North continues, the Kim Jong-un regime may opt for military action."