New South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol will face myriad yet difficult diplomatic challenges for the next five years. Korea Times file

North Korea's nuclear ambitions, US-China competition to put new South Korean leader's foreign policy to test

By Kang Seung-woo

Managing to survive a hard-fought, nail-biter election, President Yoon Suk-yeol now faces even tougher diplomatic challenges.

An unanswered nuclear threat is just sitting across the border, while a strategic dilemma over the country's balancing act amid the U.S.-China rivalry will continue to vex the new South Korean government. Plus, the new administration should find ways to normalize the nation's frayed ties with Japan.

Through his election campaign, the priority of Yoon's foreign policy direction ― to pursue a comprehensive strategic alliance with the United States ― has been advertised as a shift from the Moon Jae-in administration's balanced diplomacy, which was designed to avoid picking sides between its security ally, Washington, and largest trade partner, Beijing.

As such, Yoon dispatched his policy consultation delegation to the U.S. in April and expressed his determination to cooperate on the U.S.-led Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), agreeing with the U.S. on the need to upgrade the bilateral alliance to a comprehensive and strategic one, both of which have to do with the U.S.' moves to contain China.

"The Yoon administration is correct in pursuing a close strategic allied relationship with the United States," said Joseph DeTrani, a former U.S. special envoy for negotiations with North Korea, describing the "unique and powerful" alliance as the bedrock of the bilateral relationship and security in the region.

"China is the ROK's No. 1 trading partner, with the United States as No. 2, but that reality should not blind the Yoon Administration to the national security imperative ― and the will of the people in a strong liberal democracy ― that a close allied relationship with the United States is in South Korea's interest," DeTrani said. The ROK refers to the Republic of Korea, South Korea's official name.

Ramon Pacheco Pardo, a professor of international relations at King's College London, also predicted that Yoon will more openly criticize Beijing and work more closely with U.S.-led initiatives such as the Quad or Quad Plus or the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, once it is launched.

"It makes sense for Yoon to work closely with the U.S. and other partners similarly concerned about China's aggressive posture, such as Australia, Canada, Europe or Japan, or NATO. And I would advise the Yoon government to be more open about its collaboration with these countries that the Moon government has downplayed," he said.

"China will of course criticize the Yoon government. But then, Beijing is always critical of any perceived slight," he said.

"So at some point, it will criticize the Yoon government anyway. Seoul should not be afraid of this, and continue to diversify its economic links to minimize the impact of any Chinese actions," Pacheco Pardo added.

President Yoon Suk-yeol will hold his first summit with U.S. President Joe Biden in Seoul, May 21, during which the U.S. leader is expected to ask Korea to support Washington's anti-China coalition. Korea Times file

Amid growing signs that the Yoon administration is set to strengthen its alliance with Washington and eventually lend more support to the U.S.-led anti-China coalition, the Chinese government has also been working hard to keep the South Korean government in check.

Chinese President Xi Jinping held a phone conversation with Yoon days after his election win in March and Vice President Wang Qishan attended Yoon's inauguration ceremony, which is seen as unprecedented for the Chinese government to send such a senior official to Seoul on the occasion of South Korea's leadership change.

Yoon's U.S.-centered diplomacy has already drawn veiled warnings from the Chinese side.

"Seoul has no room to gamble in the so-called game between Beijing and Washington. Only by accurately clarifying and grasping the meaning of mutual respect can it find the answer to become a pivotal country," China's state-run Global Times warned in an editorial in March.

Harry Kazianis, the president and CEO of the developing think tank, Rogue States Project, said the new South Korean president should not go so far as to alienate China, although he is expected to be much tougher on Beijing to Biden's liking.