North Korea's leader Kim Jong-un presides over the first workshop of the commanders and political officers of the Korean People's Army (KPA) held in Pyongyang from July 24 to 27, in this photo released by the country's state-run Korean Central Television, Friday. Yonhap

Joint exercise emerges as key variable in thawing inter-Korean relations

By Jung Da-min

Whether South Korea and the United States will carry out their annual summertime joint military exercises scheduled for August could affect the development of inter-Korean relations, according to North Korea watchers, Sunday.

Inter-Korean relations, which had been stalemated for some time and were exacerbated by North Korea blowing up a building housing the inter-Korean joint liaison office in Gaesong in the North in June 2020, have shown signs of a thaw with the two countries restoring communication hotlines, July 27, the 68th anniversary of the signing of the armistice that ended the 1950-53 Korean War.

Moon Sung-mook, a senior researcher at the Korea Research Institute for National Strategy, said a reconciliatory mood between the Koreas has not been automatically created with the restoration of the hotlines, adding that the North could demand a cancellation of the exercises as a "corresponding measure" to it responding to the South's peace efforts by restoring communications.

"The North responded to the South's call for the restoration of communications July 27, the day which the North claims as an anniversary of its victory (in the Korean War). There is the possibility that the North has demanded the South cancel its joint military drill with the U.S.," Moon said. "At the eighth congress of the North's ruling Workers' Party of Korea, the country's leader Kim Jong-un said there were two preconditions for inter-Korean talks ― the first was the cancellation of South Korea-U.S. joint military exercises and the second was stopping the introduction of advanced weapons from the U.S."

Pyongyang has long denounced the exercises, calling them a rehearsal for invasion. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un said at a workshop for commanders and political officers of the Korean People's Army (KPA) held in Pyongyang from July 24 to 27 that "the hostile forces systematically keep bolstering up their capabilities for making a preemptive attack on the DPRK and increase armaments while intensifying all sorts of frantic and persistent war drills for aggression," according to the country's state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA). The DPRK, or the Democratic People's Republic of Korea is the official name of North Korea.

But Moon said he believes inter-Korean relations will not improve much even if the South accepts the demand, as the North did not show any commitment to improving inter-Korean ties in recent years when the South and U.S. replaced their springtime Key Resolve and Foal Eagle exercises, and the summertime Ulchi Freedom Guardian drills with scaled-down ones.