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Prof. Hwang speaks about China's growing role. Korea Times photo by Shim Hyun-chul |
By Hwang Jae-ho
Although the summit did not produce any results, it is not over yet. It is the usual drama on the Korean Peninsula. It is due to the distrust between the two countries that the summit ended without an agreement. Kim Jung-un does not buy Trump's designation of him as "best friend". Therefore, Kim will not simply hand over to the U.S. what it wants until he sees complete results. And the U.S. sought to drive a hard bargain this time, having in mind North Korea's track record of breaches. However, there is too much investment to quit now.
The most disappointed side after the summit must be South Korea. Had the Hanoi summit achieved success, it would have directly led to Kim's South Korea visit. It certainly is a blow to Moon's peace timetable. However, there is little reason for concern ― President Moon is just two years into his presidency, with three to go.
The Hanoi summit left some things to be desired, but we can still learn a few lessons. The first lesson we learned from the Hanoi Summit is the establishment of negotiation. There must be several challenges coming, but one thing to be clear is that negotiation must sustainably be there without suspension. Because it is not a crisis, it does not need to be managed. Instead, more attention is needed on prevention.
Furthermore, an exit strategy should be sought. Institutionalized dialogues and well-organized negotiations are also necessary. Here, South Korea's role as a third-party mediator could be useful. We need to find the Korean way of calculation that can find the interface when both the U.S. and DPRK stand with a different way of calculation.
How we practically use China is terribly critical for denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. China's influence on the Korean Peninsula is definite. After China's National People's Congress and Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference end, Kim will decide whether he himself heads to China or sends a delegation for a message.
They are already in a relationship where both can share strategic communication frequently. In this context, China can somehow influence North Korea not to make a rash decision after the shock from Hanoi.
On the other hand, China considers that South Korea is making its best effort to improve the situation for the Korean Peninsula. It even seems to understand that China's effect on Korea's diplomacy was not very high till last year.