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In this file photo taken on June 30, 2019, U.S. President Donald Trump, left, and North Korea's leader Kim Jong-un stand on North Korean soil while walking to South Korea in the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), in Panmunjom, Korea. AFP-Yonhap |
North Korea's destruction of an inter-Korean liaison office is likely the first step in a series of provocations aimed at increasing its bargaining power with Washington and Seoul ahead of the November presidential election in the United States, experts here said Tuesday.
Fully aware that it is unlikely to get any sanctions relief it wants from the U.S. before the election, North Korea will continue to escalate its military and nonmilitary threats in preparation for a second term for President Donald Trump or a first term for former Vice President Joe Biden, according to the analysts.
"This is just the opening bid," Sue Mi Terry, who served as Korea director on the National Security Councils of former Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama, told Yonhap News Agency in a phone interview.
"From here, escalations will continue. They have to. After provocations towards South Korea, then they will turn their attention to the United States," she said, noting the abundance of options North Korea can choose from without directly provoking Trump's ire.
Trump has drawn the line at nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missile tests that threaten the United States, but North Korea could fire medium-range ballistic missiles over Japan or launch a missile from a submarine and still build its nuclear deterrence.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has also yet to showcase the "new strategic weapon" he spoke of in December, with upcoming anniversaries providing the opportunity to do so ― June 25 will be the 70th anniversary of the outbreak of the Korean War, July 4 will be Independence Day in the U.S. and Oct. 10 will be 75 years since the founding of the North's ruling Workers' Party.
"Pyongyang has issued increasingly negative depictions of the personal relationship between Kim Jong-un and President Trump, and vowed not to engage in another photo-op summit," Bruce Klingner, a former CIA deputy division chief for Korea, told Yonhap, supporting the notion that North Korea is not interested in diplomacy anytime soon.